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Development of an energy-based runoff generation model in Arctic tundra regions
Robin Thorne and William Quinton, Wilfrid Laurier University, CANADA ABSTRACT Recently, the demand for improved predictive models of runoff in arctic tundra regions has increased, given uncertainties regarding the future availability of northern freshwater resources related to climate change and expanding resource development. Hydrological characteristics of the arctic tundra are substantially different from those of temperate regions in which traditional runoff generation theories were based. Therefore, theories that apply specifically to the arctic tundra need to be incorporated into a robust runoff model to improve predictions for this region. In addition, the topographically based contributing areas described by source area concepts in the model can be combined with or superseded by an energy-based contributing area. The goal of this project is to design an energy-based runoff generation model to simulate characteristics influencing the aerodynamic and radiation regimes at the surface, including surface roughness, slope, and aspect angle in tundra landscapes. Through the model, the frost table topography can be derived, which is a critical step toward predicting the rate and direction of flow. As most arctic tundra catchments in Canada are ungauged, understanding the impact of observed climate warming and unprecedented resource extraction activities can only be achieved through improved conceptualization of hydrological processes. Thus, an energy-based runoff generation model may lead to improved predictions of streamflow in both the present and future. |