ENKI - operational hydrological forecasting system


Oddbjorn Bruland, Statkraft Energi AS, NORWAY

ABSTRACT

Statkraft produces close to 40 TWH in an average year and is one of the largest hydropower producers in Europe. In the European energy market the hydropower scheduling is the key to success and this depend on optimal use of the water resources with respect to market energy prices. Under these circumstances the role of the hydrologist and his forecasts both on short and on long terms has become more focused. As the hydropower systems grows large and becomes more complex the more the hydrologist get dependent on his tools to automatically analyse the incoming data, update models and produce a runoff forecast to each hydropower reservoir. Lumped models based on the HBV concept are state of the art among hydropower producers at least in Scandinavia. ENKI is next generation of hydrological operational forecasting tool for hydropower purposes. ENKI is based on a distributed model system. To make it a complete operational model, methodology to analyze uncertainty, to update and automatic calibrate the models and to include input data from variable sources, will be studied and implemented. To ensure continuous development of the model the hydrological model is strongly modularized in order to make it easy to change hydrological methods and routines and in order to make it easy for students, researcher and other model developers to adapt the model to their purposes and help us develop the optimal hydrological model for hydropower forecasting. The ENKI projects are run in cooperation with the largest hydropower producers in Norway, but all with interest in the subject are encouraged to join the project group.