Alaska’s Seward Peninsula is underlain by near-freezing, shallow, continuous and discontinuous permafrost. These conditions make it more susceptible to changing climatic conditions such as acceleration of the hydrologic cycle or general atmospheric warming. This study examines the Snake River watershed, an important water resource flowing through the region’s most populated town, Nome. Permafrost restricts subsurface flow so modeling potential changes to both soil moisture and river discharge are important to the ecology of the area and how local residents use the resource in the future.

Using a physically based hydrologic transport model, the present hydrologic system is compared to the future using observational data for the present and GCM output for the end of the 21^st Century. Unlike most of Alaska, climate records and river stage have been recorded in Nome for many years (100 and 40, respectively) providing a solid basis for modeling.  For the future modeling comparison, the Max Planck Institute Echam5 SRES A1B scenario was selected because the 20^th century run for this model best represents the current climatology in Alaska (Walsh et al in press).

Initial conditions for the near surface soils in the basin and permafrost distribution for the present and future is estimated using previous work (Busey et al 2008).  Past work has also involved modeling discharge at four smaller basins in the interior of the Peninsula (Carr 2003).  This study expands that research to a larger watershed with a higher population with more diverse water needs.