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Strategies and approaches to predicting sediment erosion and water quality changes in northern basins caused by localized permafrost disturbances
Scott Lamoureux, Melissa Lafréniere and Ted Lewis, Queen’s University, CANADA ABSTRACT Recent observations of deeper active layers, surface disturbances and increased soil moisture likely represent the initial indications of what are projected to be extensive permafrost alterations in the near future. Ground ice melt and increased rainfall intensity and magnitude will decrease the stability of permafrost slopes and increase the risk of disturbances. Localized slope disturbances like active layer detachments (ALD) represent intense disruptions of the vegetation and soil structure that result in increased sediment erosion and solute release. However, it remains poorly understood how these localized disturbances affect basin-scale water quality. As part of long term research at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO), Melville Island, Nunavut, we are investigating the impacts of extensive ALD that occurred in 2007 on surface processes and downstream water quality. Results indicate that hydrologically-connected ALD contribute a significant amount of sediment and solutes to the basin outflow, particularly during the mid-summer low flow period. Key controls over the contribution of sediment and solutes from a given ALD are hydrological connectivity, size of the disturbance and ongoing water sources. We are combining a hierarchical nested monitoring framework, together with a geomorphic process unit strategy to develop a generalized hydrological model structure to predict changes to basin-scale water quality from ALD and similar permafrost disturbances in this High Arctic environment. This work will contribute to similar efforts to evaluate the impact of permafrost disruption in other northern settings and provide a framework to predict future permafrost changes, landscape stability, and downstream water quality.
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