Transient simulations of the Little Ice Age and beyond with a global reduced complexity climate model


Lawrence A. Mysak, McGill University, CANADA

ABSTRACT

Reconstructed wind-stress fields which take into account the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and one GCM wind-stress field, together with three radiative forcings (volcanic activity, insolation changes and greenhouse gas changes) are used in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to simulate the surface air temperature (SAT), the sea-ice cover in both hemispheres, global ocean properties (heat content and hydrography) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) since 1500, a period which includes the Little Ice Age (LIA).  The simulated NH SAT agrees quite well with several temperature reconstructions.  Interestingly enough, the simulated sea-ice area in each hemisphere responds quite differently to the forcings.  Only in the NH is the simulated sea-ice cover area and volume noticeably larger during the LIA than during the present-day area and volume.  It is also shown, among other things, that changes in the upper ocean heat content are mainly driven by radiative forcing changes, except in the polar regions where the varying wind-stress drives multi-decadal advective events into the high latitudes.